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RISK, PROBABILITY, MEASURE |
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 Q1 |
Smiffy has left the DPM and joined NASA. Well isn`t
that our man to a T ?
He is sent to Metabelis 6 where, as we know, they have eliminated all risks
apart from three, namely those represented symbolically by 
(tau)  (alpha) and  (kappa).
The table shows the number of deaths per year (averaged over the last decade)
associated with ,
and
| source of risk |
No. of deaths per year (averaged over
the last decade) |
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1026 |
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106 |
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e, where e=1/n as n   |
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| A1 |
Which is the major source of risk ? answer = |
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| Q2 |
During a lull at the DPM some of the boyos are watching Channel 4 racing,
and what of our man Smiffy and his beamish boys ?
That`s no proper mans passtime; Smiffy and one of his BBs decide to have
a game of Russian roulette.
One beamish boy takes his empty six-shooter and slips in one slug
....
Smiffy goes first (age before beauty !), the players take turns until
one player kills himself ...
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| A2 |
What is the probability that Smiffy kills himself ? answer = 6/11 |
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| Q2a |
Suppose pr(c) = 1/10 (it isnt` beacuse I want you to tell me the answer), this means that the probability that BB kills himself (pr(b) is 9/10.
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| A2a |
Does this mean after the game of Russian roulette that Smiffy is 1/10th dead and BB is 9/10th dead ? ... please advise |
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| Q3 |
One of the beamish boys has left the DPM and become a jockey. He is taking part in 3 races and, yes, there in the crowd is our man Smiffy with his cheese n onion crisps and pint of Old Stinko`s Ferret Ale. The probability that our beamish boy jockey wins any given race is 1/4.
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A3 |
What is the probability that the jockey wins the 3rd race, given that he wins at least 2 races ? - email me your answer |
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